DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT – NWS Pueblo March 2023

Drought Conditions Persist across Southeast Colorado

SYNOPSIS:

The first week of January was relatively cool and unsettled across south central and southeast Colorado, before upper level ridging brought warm and dry conditions through the second week of the month.  The last half of January saw occasional disturbances bringing surges of cold and unsettled weather across the region through the end of the month. February started off warm and dry across the area, with several passing weather systems throughout the rest of the month bringing periods of cool, wet and windy weather to the region. The month of March so far has followed in February`s footsteps, with a warm and dry start, followed by several passing disturbances bringing periods of cool, wet and windy weather to area, along with abundant snowfall along and west of the Continental Divide.  With that said, the latest US Drought Monitor issued Thursday, March 23rd 2023, indicates drought free conditions for areas along and west of the Continental Divide.

Extreme (D3) drought conditions are indicated across the eastern half of Baca county into eastern Prowers county and extreme south southeastern Kiowa county, with a small sliver of Exceptional Drought (D4) conditions across extreme southeast Baca county.

Severe drought (D2) conditions are depicted across southeastern Las Animas County into most the rest of Baca and Prowers Counties, as well as into southeastern Kiowa county.

Moderate drought conditions are also depicted across extreme northeastern and southeastern Pueblo county, the rest of Crowley county, most of Otero county, southeastern Las Animas county, Bent county, northwestern Prowers county and the rest of Kiowa county.

More information about drought classification can be found at: droughtmonitor.unl.edu/About/AbouttheData/DroughtClassification.aspx

FIRE DANGER:

Cool and unsettled weather through much of January and February tempered fire danger somewhat across south central and southeast Colorado. Warmer, drier and occasionally wind weather in the end of February through March has lead to increased fire danger across the snow free areas of south central and southeast Colorado.  The latest information on fire bans and restrictions across the area can be found at: www.coemergency.com/p/fire-bans-danger.html

AGRICULTURAL:

The latest CPC top soil and sub soil moisture data, as well as the longer term (2 and 3 month) Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) indicate below to well below soil moisture conditions across the southeast Plains, with the longer term (1, 2 and 3 Month) EDDI data indicating moderate drying across the eastern portions the San Luis Valley into the southeast mountains.

HYDROLOGIC:

The latest NRCS Colorado Water Supply Outlook Report and data indicates statewide mountain precipitation for the month of February was 100 percent of median, as compared to 72 percent of median at this time last year. This brings the 2023 Water Year (Oct 2022-Sep 2023) to date precipitation to 115 percent of median, as compared to 98 percent of median at this same time last year.

In the Arkansas basin, February precipitation came in at 89 percent of median, as compared to the 113 percent of median precipitation at this same time last year. This brings the 2023 Water Year (Oct 2022-Sep 2023) to date precipitation to 92 percent of median, as compared to 93 percent of median at this same time last year.

In the Rio Grande basin, February precipitation came in at 119 percent of median, as compared to the 109 percent of median precipitation at this same time last year. This brings the 2023 Water Year (Oct 2022-Sep 2023) to date precipitation to 104 percent of median, as compared to 90 percent of median at this same time last year.

NRCS data also indicated the statewide snowpack on March 1st was at 120 percent of median, as compared to 95 percent of median at this time last year.

In the Arkansas basin, March 1st snowpack was at 83 percent of median, as compared to 89 percent of median at this same time last year. Snowpack in the Arkansas basin is the lowest in the state. The latest streamflow forecasts for Arkansas basin range from 58 percent of median at Grape Creek near Westcliffe, to 104 percent of median at Chalk Creek near Nathrop.

In the Rio Grande basin, March 1st snowpack was at 109 percent of median, as compared to 93 percent of median at this same time last year. The latest streamflow forecasts for the Rio Grande basin range from 79 percent of median at Costilla Reservoir Inflow, to 139 percent of median at San Antonio River at Ortiz.

NRCS data also indicated statewide water storage was at 85 percent of median overall at the end of February, as compared to the 75 percent of median storage available at this time last year.

In the Arkansas Basin, water storage at the end of February came in at 91 percent of median overall, as compared to the 82 percent of median storage available at this time last year.

In the Rio Grande Basin, water storage at the end of February came in at 107 percent of median overall, as compared to the 93 percent of median storage available at this time last year.

CLIMATE SUMMARY:

The average temperature in Pueblo for the past month of February was 33.7 degrees, which is 1.4 degrees below normal. Pueblo recorded 0.46 inches of precipitation through the month of February, which is 0.14 inches above normal. Pueblo recorded 8.3 inches of snow through out February, which is 3.6 inches above normal.

The average temperature in Pueblo for the winter of 2022-2023 was 31.1 degrees, which is 1.8 degrees below normal. Pueblo recorded 0.76 inches of precipitation through the winter, which is 0.14 inches below normal. Pueblo recorded 11.9 inches of snow through the winter, which is 2.3 inches below normal.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK:

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 6 to 10 day outlook indicates better chances of below normal temperatures, with a slight nod to above normal precipitation across south central Colorado and near normal precipitation across southeast Colorado. The outlook for April, May and June indicates better chances of above normal temperatures across southeast Colorado, along with equal chances of above, below and near normal temperatures south central Colorado. The precipitation outlook for April, May and June indicate a slight nod to below normal across south central and southeast Colorado.