Colorado’s wildfire season predicted to be worse this year

The Waldo Canyon fire destroys houses in Mountain Shadows on June 26, 2012. (Jerilee Bennett, The Gazette file)

By: Nick Smith/Denver Gazette

Colorado’s blistering, dry and breezy conditions have fire officials on edge as the state braces for a wildfire season forecast to be worse than during the Waldo Canyon fire in 2012. Officials warn that wildfires are becoming more frequent, more destructive and larger. “We are not looking good for fire this year,” Colorado Springs Fire Marshal Kris Cooper told the city council on Monday. “It’s got the fire department on pins and needles.”

According to Tracy LeClair, a spokesperson for The Wildland Fire Management Section of the Colorado Division of Fire Prevention and Control, conditions are a “magnitude worse” than those ahead of major historic wildfires in the state, such as the Waldo Canyon and Black Forest fires. The two fires stand as the state’s second- and fourth-most destructive fires.

The division’s 2026 wildfire risk assessment report says the western U.S. is in an “exceptional drought,” which happens once every 50 years or so. Some analyses based on tree-ring data report that the southwest has been in a megadrought for over two decades, the driest the region has been in 1,200 years. Several historic fires (Hayman, Cameron Peak and Marshall) all had drought precursors, but this year’s drought is “longer-lasting and more widespread,” according to the report.

The conditions have prompted Gov. Jared Polis to activate the state’s Drought Task Force, which was last active in 2020. That year included the Cameron Peak, East Troublesome, Pine Gulch, Grizzly Creek and Logan wildfires. The Cameron Peak and East Troublesome fires are the largest fires by acreage in Colorado history, according to the Colorado Division of Fire Prevention and Control. The East Troublesome fire was the third-most destructive, destroying 366 homes.

LeClair said fuels are drying faster, making them more receptive to fire for longer. “At this time of year, before green-up, we’re looking at those fine, dry fuels that didn’t have any snowpack to pack them down. Any spark in those coupled with a little bit of wind has the potential for a catastrophic fire,” LeClair said. “We’re obviously pretty concerned.”

 Weather impacts

Lead National Weather Service Meteorologist Kathleen Torgerson said this year’s historically low snow pack is “some of the worst” Colorado has seen in her 30-year career. The lowest snow-water equivalent totals are in the San Juans, Arkansas River and Upper Rio Grande watersheds.

With baseline conditions — low snowpack, drought and scorching heat — at critical levels, fire weather is occurring more often and earlier, according to the Colorado Fire Prevention and Control risk assessment report. The conditions have already prompted approximately 30 red flag warnings this year through Thursday. According to Cooper, El Paso County typically gets around two a month.

National Weather Service data shows Colorado Springs has broken at least 16 daily and all-time records since Nov. 2, 2025. In Pueblo, there have been at least 19 records broken since Oct. 9. Wildfire intensity, LeClair said, is “primarily” driven by wind, temperature and humidity levels, but steep terrain and excessive fuel loads also contribute. She couldn’t speculate if Colorado would see more intense fires this year. But these types of fires often occur, especially up in the mountains, when lightning strikes.

Extremely hot fires destroy the soil’s nutritional content and leave what is widely known as “burn scars.” LeClair said it takes a “long time” for a forest to recover after that, and it can also lead to post-fire flash flooding since there is no vegetation to absorb the rain. Since snow melt is starting sooner, runoff will be “much lower,” LeClair said. Ash and debris from wildfires could also contaminate the watershed. About 80% of Colorado’s population relies on forested watersheds for municipal water supplies.

A new wildfire norm

A 2025 analysis published by Colorado State University researchers shows that bigger, hotter and faster fires are the new norm. Colorado’s five largest fires have happened within the past 23 years. Of the 10 largest fires in state history, eight took place since 2012, with three in 2020.

According to the analysis, which uses NIFC data, the annual average number of wildfires in Colorado has increased sharply, from 13 in the 1990s to nearly 50 in the 2000s to more than 70 by the 2020s. In 2025, 77,850 wildfires burned 5,131,474 acres, according to the NIFC. The total number of fires was “significantly above” the five- and 10-year averages.

The increasing frequency has some scientists like Torgerson saying there is no longer a wildfire “season” — it’s a year-round phenomenon. While there are many factors for the growing size and frequency of wildfires, scientists say that a primary culprit is climate change.

A study published in 2016 in the scientific journal PNAS found that human-caused climate change contributed to more than half of the documented increases in dry fuels since the 1970s and “doubled” the cumulative forest fire area since 1984 across the western U.S. The study suggested that climate change will continue to “chronically enhance the potential for western U.S. forest fire activity.

LeClair said the most important fire preventative step is that you should “know before you go. Don’t start a campfire if there are fire restrictions. If you do have a campfire, make sure it’s 100% out before you leave … fireworks are a big one in Colorado. Don’t set them off this year,” she said.

LeClair said the Division of Fire Prevention and Control is preparing as it usually would: hiring additional seasonal staff, utilizing weather data, extending operational hours and more. This year, however, has presented its own challenge. LeClair said the low snowpack meant the state hasn’t been able to conduct as many prescribed burns, which reduce the amount of potential fuel for a fire. Since mountain snowmelt started early, the window for lightning-caused wildfires is wider.

If a fire sparks, LeClair said the state is ready to step in to provide ground resources, aviation assets, fire engines and other technology used in fire control at a moment’s notice. LeClair expects a shortage of state and federal resources. She said this happens “fairly regularly” every year, but that period, which typically occurs in July and August, may come sooner and last longer.

While the near future may look grim, there is still some hope for a less dry season, according to Torgerson, the meteorologist. “It’s possible we get some big storms come through and put off some really bad potential seasons like we’ve had in the past. There just aren’t any strong signals of these big storms,” she said.

Preliminary Weather Service information in early March showed that cities such as Colorado Springs saw “above normal” rain and snow this winter, though Torgerson said much of that precipitation is drying out fast.

#    #    #